The United States is playing a dangerous game of leverage, using its economic power to simultaneously pressure a key ally and entice a major adversary. The critical question is whether the US is overplaying its hand, risking a situation where it achieves neither of its goals.
The leverage against India—the 50% tariffs—could backfire. Instead of compelling compliance, it could foster deep-seated resentment and push India to accelerate its diversification away from the US, weakening a crucial long-term partnership.
The leverage with Russia—the promise of energy deals—may not be enough. Moscow could pocket the diplomatic concessions and the signal of a divided West without making any meaningful or lasting moves toward peace in Ukraine, leaving the US looking naive.
By trying to achieve too much at once with a high-risk, contradictory strategy, the administration risks a total failure. It could end up with a damaged relationship with India and an unchanged situation in Ukraine, a worst-of-both-worlds outcome that would be a significant blow to American prestige and influence.