Network effects among Indian refiners created coordinated responses without central direction during 2025’s procurement shifts, demonstrating distributed intelligence. While US crude imports to India increased by 65.6% to $8.2 billion during April-December 2025, Russian crude imports contracted by more than 17%, falling from $40 billion to $33.1 billion in the same period.
December 2025 reflected network-driven coordination. Russian crude shipments to India totaled $2.71 billion, down 15.15% from $3.2 billion in December 2024, resulting from individual refiners observing peer behavior and adjusting their own strategies accordingly. Information sharing and peer observation created emergent coordination.
Network effects supported alternative supplier adoption. Saudi Arabia’s 61% growth to $1.75 billion in December 2025 accelerated as refiners observed peers successfully sourcing Saudi crude. The United States’ 31% increase to $569.30 million benefited from demonstration effects. Iraq and the UAE, contributing $2.37 billion and $1.65 billion, gained from network-driven adoption.
Network effects intensified following the US imposition of a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods on August 27, 2025. Early refiner responses influenced peer decisions, creating cascading adjustments without requiring centralized coordination. The refinery network functioned as a distributed decision system. Russian crude imports declined from $3.62 billion in July 2025 to $2.71 billion in December 2025.
India’s total crude oil imports from all sources reached $11.29 billion in December 2025, up 9.1% from $10.34 billion in December 2024. Cumulative imports for April-December 2025 totaled $105.10 billion, compared to $109.33 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. The network effects demonstrate distributed coordination mechanisms.