Every new military strike in the Iran war is sending US oil prices higher, and the conflict’s third week promises more of the same chaos as markets brace for Monday. Analyst Patrick De Haan has forecast pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, while $4 gasoline remains a near-term possibility. The direct correlation between new military strikes and oil price increases has made the energy market a real-time barometer of the conflict’s intensity.
The pattern of rising prices with each new strike was established on February 28, when the first US-Israel attacks on Iran immediately triggered higher oil prices. Since then, each successive round of strikes has pushed the national gasoline average higher, with the cumulative impact now totaling a 23% increase from below $3 per gallon to $3.70. The pattern suggests that further strikes could push prices toward and potentially beyond the $4 threshold.
Friday’s US strike on Kharg Island, targeting Iran’s most critical oil processing facility, produced the latest chapter in the pattern of strike-driven price increases. Iran’s continuation of the Strait of Hormuz blockade has ensured that the supply impacts of each new strike are not offset by additional supply reaching international markets. Brent crude ranged from $103 to $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 after briefly reaching $100 the day before.
California faces the most extreme domestic price pattern, with state averages above $5 per gallon and certain Los Angeles stations posting prices above $8. Diesel for commercial freight could reach $5.15 per gallon nationally. Oil company executives from Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have all warned White House officials about the worsening supply pattern, with Exxon’s Darren Woods specifically flagging the risk that speculative trading will amplify the price response to each new military development.
Wall Street opened the week with mild gains, the S&P 500 rising approximately 1% following a brief oil price pullback. Oil company stocks have surged to record highs since the conflict began. The strike-price pattern that has characterized three weeks of the Iran war shows no signs of breaking, suggesting that US oil prices will continue to rise with each new military escalation.